Volatility in the knowledge economy

Summary. We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and contracting faster in a downswing. To test this hypothesis we postulate a general equilibrium model with two sectors: one with increasing returns that are external to the firm and endogenously determined - the knowledge sector - and the other with constant returns to scale. We introduce a new measure of volatility of output, a real beta, and derive a resolving equation, from which we prove that the increasing return sectors exhibit more volatility then other sectors. We validate the main results on US macro economic data of real GDP by industry (2-3 digits SIC codes) of the 1977-2001 period, and provide policy conclusions.Received: 18 March 2002, Revised: 16 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D5, D58, E10, L50, L52, O38, O51.Correspondence to: Graciela Chichilnisky     

传统村镇旅游发展比较——以徽州古村落群与江南六大古镇为例

我国的传统村镇都有着浓厚的文化底蕴和独特的人文景观,但不同区域传统村镇旅游的发展过程和发展方向却存在较大差异。文章分析传统村镇的集聚共性特征,并对我国传统村镇的发展特征差异,包括社会文化背景、经济发展水平、区位条件差异、地形特征等进行了分析,提出了传统村镇发展阶段理论,在此基础上对传统村镇发展方向和发展思路进行了比较分析。     

农业发展新阶段的市域农业结构问题与调整--以衡阳市为例

本文以衡阳市为实证，回顾了市域农业结构的形成、演变过程，指出目前的市域农业结构存在市场适应、组织构筑和动力机制等三方面的主要问题。文章提出了市域农业结构调整的三大原则和四个调整方向，并结合实际提出了两点具有可操作性的建议。     

浅析长拳类套路演练中的节奏

掌握节奏是套路演练中的关键环节,本文从长拳类套路演练中节奏的涵义、节奏在套路演练中所体现的价值以及演练中如何更好地掌握节奏这三个方面出发,在查找相关文献资料、总结自身教学经验的基础上,运用总结、归纳等方法进行了分析论述.     

承包型CM模式与跨流域调水工程建设管理

在分析跨流域长距离调水工程特点的基础上,提出对大型跨流域调水工程采用承包型CM模式并分析其应用优点和条件。     

Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output

We compare a number of models of post War US output growth in terms of the degree and pattern of non-linearity they impart to the conditional mean, where we condition on either the previous period's growth rate, or the previous two periods' growth rates. The conditional means are estimated non-parametrically using a nearest-neighbour technique on data simulated from the models. In this way, we condense the complex, dynamic, responses that may be present in to graphical displays of the implied conditional mean. First version received: Feb. 1999/Final version received: June 2001     

Environmental tax policy in a model of growth cycles

Summary. The purpose of this paper is to consider environmental taxation which would control emissions of firms in a model of growth cycles. In the model presented below, the economy may experience two phases of growth and environmental quality: “the no-innovation growth regime” and “the innovation-led growth regime”. Aggregate capital and environmental quality remain constant in the no-innovation growth regime, while they perpetually increase in the innovation-led growth regime. The paper shows that the tax plays a key role in determining whether the economy stably converges to one of the two regimes or fluctuates permanently between them. It also shows that there is a critical level of the tax and that the economy obtains higher growth rates of capital and environmental quality by raising (or reducing) the tax if the initial tax is below (or above) the critical level. Received: April 2, 2001; revised version: March 21, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" This research reported here was conducted within the research project “Project on Intergenerational Equity” at Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee for his or her insightful comments, which greatly improved the paper. I also thank Hiroshi Honda, Yasuo Maeda, Yuji Nakayama, and participants in workshops at Hitotsubashi University, Kyoto University, Nagoya University, Osaka University, University of Tsukuba, Yokohama National University, and University of Tokyo for their valuable comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are mine.     

Business cycles in Italy: A statistical investigation

This paper conducts a statistical analysis of post-war economic fluctuations in Italy. It is argued that business cycles in this country qualitatively conform to the general character of the phenomenon, a result which confirms existing evidence. A temporal stability analysis of stylized facts shows that some statistically significant changes in the empirical regularities occurred after 1973, but they did not alter the main qualitative features of the business cycle. The evidence thus supports interpretative models of the Italian business cycle which incorporate a stable propagation mechanism.     

Schumpeter's circular flow,learning by doing and cyclical growth

A two-sector growth model with endogenous technical change is presented. Concerning technical change, we assume that it is reflected by increases in the stock of human capital which are acquired through learning by doing. As a result, it turns out that transitory or, using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, persistent oscillations of the economic variables may be the outcome. Thus we are able to show that learning mechanisms alone may be sufficient to destroy the circular flow as described by Schumpeter.     

The Performance of Internet Firms Following Their Initial Public Offering

We find that initial returns were more favorable for Internet initial public offerings (IPOs) than non–Internet firm IPOs. Since the demise of the Internet sector, the underpricing of Internet–firm IPOs is not significantly different from other IPOs.
Initial returns of Internet firms are positively and significantly related to underwriter prestige and to pre–IPO market conditions. However, initial returns after the demise of the Internet sector are not significantly related to these characteristics.
The aftermarket performance of Internet firms is initially favorable but weakens over time. Firms that experienced higher initial returns during the strong Internet cycle experience weaker aftermarket performance.